The Milk Trout
“Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.” - Henry David Thoreau
In this space in The Maguire Network, I extract pieces of intriguing circumstancial evidence to share with all of you. In this edition, I'd like to share one such idea from our forthcoming book, EM=C2: A New Formula for Enrollment Management, that seems ideally suited for The Milk Trout.
The hole in the funnel metaphor has been staring us in the face for decades. In the book, we reconsider the continued utility of the traditional enrollment funnel in an effort to visualize Enrollment Management in a new world of networked prospects, stealth applicants, and online communities. The new book is due out this September and will kick off a year-long celebration of our first 25 years in the higher education consulting and research business. I hope you enjoy this sneak peek.
Jack Maguire
Chairman and Founder of Maguire Associates
Adapted from the forthcoming book:
EM=C2: A New Formula for Enrollment Management
By John Maguire and Lawrence Butler
and Their Colleagues at Maguire Associates
Is That Your Funnel Answer?
It turns out, that good old, reliable metaphor – the enrollment funnel – is leaking like a sieve. And if not to hold conceptual water, what’s a metaphor?
With its connotation of a narrowing flow of individuals who are increasingly disposed to make a positive purchase decision, the sales or marketing funnel image (originating in the world of business) resonates with the actual experience of drawing a stream of paying customers to the vendor’s enterprise. It also demarcates phases along the way, as the truly “qualified” prospect or lead is accorded more focused marketing attention in an effort to convert the qualified into the committed. In the same way, higher education’s version of the marketing funnel conveys the notion of a directed and increasingly targeted flow of prospective students into the institutional embrace of a particular college or university. The Enrollment Funnel employs a different set of terms but shares the same principle.
For some time now, we have recognized certain inadequacies in the funnel. For one thing, it suggests a passive flow (subject only to “gravitational” forces) that visually leaves no space for institutional agency in encouraging the movement of individuals from one stage to the next. It describes a closed system with no entry points for flows that bypass earlier phases. And the funnel outlet is typically at the confirmed enrollment stage. We all know that student retention is critical, but the funnel doesn’t really reflect this reality. Nor does it allow for post-graduation stages in the relationship of an alumnus with the school.
A Metaphorical Defect
As a metaphor, a funnel does not fully depict what is actually happening in the marketplace. Think about it. In a real funnel, all of the material entering the broad opening at the top eventually flows out the narrow outlet at the bottom. As a metaphor for a winnowing process, the funnel is inherently defective because it makes no provision for the outflows of those who do not proceed through subsequent phases. The focus continues to be on those who choose (or are selected) to move through successive phases, not on those who never enter or who flow out of the system.
If this were simply a matter of symbolic nitpicking, we would not be pushing the point; after all, everybody basically gets what the funnel image means. But more is at stake than symbolism. The funnel metaphor actually perpetuates a crucial blind spot in the way enrollment managers and other institutional leaders view the world. It is a view that, like the funnel image itself, narrows down to a preoccupation with enrolling a class, often at the expense of assuring the optimal match of students and school, never mind building lifelong relationships.
The Dark Matters
The vast bulk of the enrollment universe is hidden from view, but that’s where the real opportunities are. Think of all the populations who flow out of (or never enter) the enrollment funnel:
- High school students who never become prospects
- Prospects who never inquire
- Inquirers who do not apply
- Applicants who never inquired (“stealth applicants”)
- Applicants who are not admitted
- Admits who do not enroll
- Enrollees who do not persist or graduate
- Graduates who do not become engaged alumni
These “opt-out” (or “never-opted-in”) populations vastly outnumber those who by choice or selection do flow through each of the conversion points. These populations are like the so-called “dark matter” that cosmologists say represents the great bulk of the mass in the universe. And like the dark matter, these populations are largely invisible, even though they are right in front of us all the time. In some cases, institutions choose not to see them – for example, those never targeted as prospects in the first place. Most of the other prospects were identified, but because they did not convert to the next phase, they are neither tracked nor followed up. They are off the radar screen because they do not seem to have any practical value or relevance to the outcome that is so ardently sought – namely, enrolling students in this coming year’s class. Maintaining focus on those who do pass through each of the funnels on the way to and through matriculation would seem to be more than enough of a burden to overworked enrollment staff.
To be sure, the choice to neglect a particular population is not always a conscious one. There is a real component of developmental awareness involved here. Think of Jim Carrey’s character in the film The Truman Show, a man so embedded in an artificially constructed world that it takes a cataclysmic event from the outside to alert him to the truth that he is actually living in a world within a larger world. Disengaging from a framework so mentally ingrained is not as simple as being informed of a larger world out there. It may require reframing one’s entire conception of what it means to do Enrollment Management. There is likely to be some energetic pushback against so drastic a notion.
Does the dark matter? Do these invisible populations really justify the expenditure of already scarce resources on monitoring and reaching out to them? We believe these “dark” populations really do matter for two very compelling reasons.
- They can teach us. There is much to be learned from those who choose not to respond positively to the institution’s value propositions and messaging, or to its offers of admission and financial support, or, for that matter, to the actual academic and other experiences it provides. All of these opt-out populations at every stage represent a vast repository of geo-demographics, opinions, preferences, and attitudes which, if tapped, could help to shape and refine the institution’s propositions, messages, offerings, and substantive reality. Even if only to confirm that those opting out are not those whom we would have wanted to decide in our favor, or to confirm the efficacy of our recruitment and enrollment efforts, shining the light of analysis on these dark matter populations would yield many valuable insights – both tactical and strategic.
- They are markets. These populations continue to be audiences and potential markets for the school’s programs and services. Applicants who aren’t admitted may one day become adult learners. Accepts who don’t enroll may one day become satisfied transfer students. Matriculants who don’t persist may yet return to complete their studies or still become donors. There are any number of ways that inquirers (who by definition expressed some interest in the school at one time) may yet become supporters, referral sources, and influencers on behalf of the school, regardless of whether they themselves ever took subsequent steps beyond their initial inquiry. They may also have siblings and friends who are potential prospects.
* * * * *
The rest of the book, to be published in September 2008, is devoted to developing an alternative decision-making framework that moves beyond the funnel metaphor.
In September, we also launch the online and ongoing forum on the book's ideas and the latest Enrollment Management innovations.
So, stay tuned and plan some time to visit.
We hope to meet you in:
The Community Square - September 2008.